In the zenith of success, Vietnamese rice export prices witness a shift following the prestigious World’s Best Rice 2023 award. While Thai rice prices surge, Vietnam’s rice, though acclaimed globally, faces a downward trend. In this report, we analyze the intricacies of the rice industry, shedding light on key figures, trends, and the implications for buyers in the Vietnamese product sourcing market.
Reflecting on this year’s rice industry, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Phung Duc Tien, observes, “Never before has rice been priced as high as it is this year. Vietnamese rice prices remain on an upward trajectory, holding the title of the world’s highest-priced rice.”
As of now, Vietnam’s rice production stands at 41.17 million tons, comfortably meeting the feasible target of over 43 million tons. This robust output ensures an ample supply, catering to a population of 100 million, encompassing processing, reserves, livestock feed, and seed production.
Simultaneously, rice exports are expected to reach unprecedented levels this year. As of November 2023, Vietnam has exported approximately 7.75 million tons of rice, raking in $4.41 billion—a remarkable 36.3% increase compared to the same period last year.
Rice, playing a pivotal role in achieving the agricultural export target of $54 billion this year, underscores its significance in Vietnam’s economic landscape, Deputy Minister Tien emphasizes.
Notably, Vietnam’s ST25 rice recently clinched the World’s Best Rice award for the second time, further solidifying the country’s global standing in rice quality and brand value.
Navigating Price Fluctuations: Post-Award Realities
Despite the global recognition, Vietnamese rice export prices are experiencing a downturn. Data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) reveals that 5% broken rice exports soared to $663 per ton on November 21, reaching an all-time high.
However, by December 7, Vietnamese rice prices retreated by $5 per ton, settling at $658. In contrast, Thai rice of the same grade witnessed a surge. Starting at $585 per ton on November 21, Thai rice crossed the $600 mark, reaching $623 per ton on December 7.
At present, Vietnamese rice is priced $35 per ton higher than its Thai counterpart, marking a shift from the earlier scenario.
Authorities project that Vietnam is set to export around 8 million tons of rice, earning approximately $4.6 billion—a historic high for the country’s rice sector.
Market Dynamics and Future Outlook: A Buyer’s Perspective
Industry analysts predict that due to limited supply and high global demand, Vietnamese rice export prices will likely remain elevated not only for the rest of this year but well into Q1 2024.
A recent tender from the National Logistics Agency of Indonesia, seeking 543,000 tons of rice, underlines the sustained demand. The expected suppliers include Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Cambodia, with a delivery deadline set for January 30, 2024.
Exporters confirm that Vietnam is selling rice at prices higher than those quoted by the VFA. Pham Thai Binh of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company revealed two contracts for Q1 2024: 460 tons at $785 per ton and another for 1,012 tons at a remarkable $860 per ton, both destined for the Malaysian market.
Looking ahead to 2024, experts anticipate that while rice prices will remain high, they are likely to stabilize below the $700 per ton threshold.
In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its global rice consumption forecast for the 2023-2024 season by 1.6 million tons, reaching a record 525.2 million tons. Global rice trade for 2024 is expected to reach 52.7 million tons, a slight reduction from the estimated 53.3 million tons in 2023.
Conclusion: Navigating the Peaks and Valleys of Vietnamese Rice Prices
As global attention lauds Vietnamese rice, the market dynamics paint a nuanced picture. Buyers must tread carefully, considering the complex interplay of awards, production figures, and market fluctuations. The ongoing surge in global demand and the accolades for Vietnamese rice reinforce its pivotal role in international trade.